Vidhan Bharat

The announcement of state election results for five Indian states took place on December 3rd and 4th. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh (MP), Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram conducted their assembly polls in November 2023. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged victorious in three out of the five states, showcasing a notable performance. The Indian National Congress (INC) party secured an impressive win in Telangana. In Mizoram, the electorate expressed a desire for change, granting the mandate to the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM). Let’s now delve into a brief discussion of each state’s election outcomes.

In Rajasthan, the established pattern of alternating party government persisted, with the electorate opting to replace the Congress government, granting a substantial majority of 115 out of 199 seats to the BJP. Despite expectations of a closely contested battle between the Congress and the BJP in exit polls, the election results revealed a comfortable victory for the BJP in forming the government in Rajasthan. The BJP secured an overall vote share of 41.7%, a 2.41% increase from the 2018 election results, while the Congress party’s vote share stood at 39.7%. In the case of reserved seats, the BJP triumphed in 19 out of the 34 Scheduled Caste (SC) reserved seats, whereas the Congress secured 11 seats. Among the 25 Scheduled Tribe (ST) reserved seats, the BJP won 12, the Congress 10, and the newly formed Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) secured 3 seats. Smaller parties like the BSP and RLD won 2 and 1 seats respectively. Also 8 independents emerged victorious. Prominent leaders such as former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, current Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, Sachin Pilot, Rajyavardhan Rathore, Mahant Balak Nath, Diya Kumari, and Gajendra Singh Shekhawat emerged victorious in their respective constituencies for the BJP and Congress parties. However, leaders like Gourav Vallabh, Manvendra Singh, and Satish Poonia faced defeats on their home grounds.

The Madhya Pradesh state assembly elections proved to be particularly intriguing this time around. With the BJP having held power in the state for almost two decades, a palpable anti-incumbency sentiment had been brewing on the ground in the months leading up to the election. Recognizing the potential for defeat, the BJP took decisive measures, opting not to declare a CM candidate before the elections. Additionally, the party strategically fielded senior leaders and Members of Parliament to contest the assembly elections, a move that ultimately paid dividends with a resounding victory of 163 out of 230 seats when the results were announced. In contrast, the INC secured only 66 out of 230 assembly seats. The BJP’s vote share surged by 7.5%, reaching 48%, while the Congress garnered 40.4% of the votes. In the reserved seats category, the BJP clinched victory in 26 out of 34 Scheduled Caste (SC) seats, while the Congress secured 8. Regarding the 47 Scheduled Tribe (ST) seats, the BJP won 26, the Congress 20, and the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) secured 1 seat. Key figures such as Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Narendra Singh Tomar, Kamal Nath, Prahlad Patel, and Jaivardhan Singh (son of former Congress CM Digvijay Singh) emerged victorious in their respective constituencies. Notably, out of the seven MPs fielded by the BJP in the state elections, five emerged victorious, while two faced defeat. Leaders such as Faggan Singh Kulaste, Narottam Mishra, Lakshman Singh, and Jitu Patwari were among those who did not secure victory in the assembly polls. Summing up the Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections, it serves as a compelling example of successfully overcoming anti-incumbency sentiments against the government.

Chhattisgarh witnessed the most significant surprise on December 3rd with the release of the election results. The BJP, contrary to expectations, not only increased its seat count but secured a substantial majority in the assembly to form the government. In a surprising turn of events, the Congress government was overthrown as the BJP emerged victorious with 54 out of the 90 seats in the house. Pollsters had anticipated a comfortable Congress government or, at the very best, a closely contested battle with a slight Congress advantage. However, when the results were unveiled, Congress was limited to 35 seats, leading to the resignation of Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel. The BJP itself did not anticipate this significant victory. In the allocation of reserved seats, Congress secured victory in 6 out of the 10 Scheduled Caste (SC) seats, while the BJP won 4 seats. Among the 29 Scheduled Tribe (ST) seats in Chhattisgarh, the BJP triumphed in 17, Congress in 11, and one seat went to an Independent candidate. The BJP’s vote share stood at 46.27%, marking a substantial 13.3% increase from the 2018 Assembly Elections, while Congress experienced a decrease of 0.81% in vote share. Notably, the Congress contested the election under the leadership of CM Bhupesh Baghel, while the BJP entered the electoral fray without officially declaring a CM candidate. Elected leaders such as Bhupesh Baghel, Raman Singh, Renuka Singh, and Arun Sao secured victory in their respective constituencies. However, prominent figures like Tamradhway Sahu, TS Singh Deo, Deepak Baij, and Chhavindra Karma faced defeat in their home constituencies.

Telangana witnessed an intriguing chapter in its Assembly Elections this time around. The long-standing BRS government, in power for a decade, was ousted by the Congress party. The Congress secured victory in 64 out of the 119 Assembly seats in Telangana, leading to the swearing-in of Congress leader Shri. Anumula Revanth Reddy as the 1st Congress Chief Minister of the state of Telangana on December 7th. The BRS party, on the other hand, managed to secure 39 seats, facing a significant setback as many heavyweight ministers lost their elections on their home turf. Notably, even Chief Minister KCR suffered defeat in the Kamareddy constituency. AIMIM maintained its stronghold in the Hyderabad city, winning its traditional 7 seats. The BJP made a notable entry into Telangana state politics, securing 8 seats and a 13.90% vote share. Although all three BJP MPs lost their seats, a BJP MLA managed to defeat both the BRS Chief Minister KCR and the newly elected Congress Chief Minister Revanth Reddy in the Kamareddy Constituency. The Telangana Assembly comprises 20 Scheduled Caste (SC) seats and 12 Scheduled Tribe (ST) seats. Congress emerged victorious in 15 SC seats and 9 ST seats, while the BRS party secured 5 SC seats and 3 ST seats. Key leaders such as former CM KCR, Revanth Reddy, KT Rama Rao, and T. Raja Singh secured victories in the assembly seats. However, Eatala Rajendar, Bandi Sanjay Kumar, V Srinivas Goud, Mohammed Azharuddin, and Arvind Dharmapuri faced defeats in their respective constituencies.

Mizoram stood as the sole North-eastern state undergoing elections this time, witnessing a significant political shift. The incumbent MNF faced defeat at the hands of a newly emerged regional party named ZPM, which secured an impressive 27 out of 40 seats. ZPM’s Chief Ministerial candidate, Mr. Lalduhoma, a former IPS officer turned politician, secured a convincing victory in the Serrchhip constituency. The MNF, on the other hand, managed to secure only 10 seats, with outgoing Chief Minister and MNF party president Shri. Zoramthanga lost the election by a simple majority. Despite Congress garnering 20.82% of the votes, it only managed to secure one seat, while the BJP secured 5.06% of the votes and won 2 seats. The noteworthy aspect lies in the fact that although the difference in vote share between ZPM and MNF was approximately 2.76%, the seat difference amounted to a substantial 17 seats. ZPM, formed before the 2018 election by merging six regional entities, including the Zoram Nationalist Party led by Mr. Lalduhoma, is credited with its victory due to the inclusion of largely fresh faces, with more than 82% of its candidates being newcomers.

Examining the collective perspective of the five state elections, a discernible undercurrent of anti-incumbency against the existing governments becomes apparent.  Except  Madhya Pradesh, all four states witnessed a change in the incumbent government. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP, having sensed the anti-incumbency sentiment in the preceding months, took proactive measures. This not only safeguarded the BJP government but also resulted in an impressive performance, securing a two-thirds majority in the assembly. Considered a precursor to the forthcoming 2024 Lok Sabha Elections, these state elections brought relief for the BJP and sounded an alarm for the I.N.D.I.A alliance. Additionally, a noticeable trend emerged with the BJP securing victories in the majority of the Hindi heartland states, while the Congress exhibited strength in South India. Looking ahead, as the Modi government at the Centre approaches the completion of its second term, it will soon face the General Elections April-May 2024.

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