BJP’s silent ascent to power in Chhattisgarh

Five states went for election in Oct-Nov 2023. Out of Which, Chhattisgarh was the state where the results came out to be very much surprising. No one predicted that Bhupesh Baghel would have to step down from the Chief Minister’s post after the election result. Most of the Pollsters predicted a close fight but a comfortable majority to the Congress. Everyone expected that the Congress would be repeating its term in chhattisgarh. But when the results were out, initial trends showed a close fight between BJP and Congress. But as the scores started settling BJP took lead and it became clear that the Bhupesh Baghel led Congress government was ousted in Chhattisgarh. BJP, on the other hand, fought the election without declaring any CM candidate. This is an exclusive blog to learn and understand the shortcomings of the Congress party in Chhattisgarh and how the BJP silently captured the throne in Chhattisgarh.

The continuous allegations of corruption on the Congress government, starting from the coal levy scam allegations to the recent Mahadev app betting scam, tarnished the image of the Bhupesh Baghel government in the state. Congress may keep defending itself in the legal systems, but it cannot be denied that the allegations of corruption have harmed Congress in the eyes of the voters.

The Chhattisgarh Congress government placed its emphasis on OBC representation and social justice, but, it failed to effectively convey its vision and narrative to the general populace. In the 2018 assembly elections, the Congress managed to secure the support of the Sahu voters, who constitute a significant portion of the OBC vote bank. However, due to increased divisions within OBC politics and the overshadowing of Tamradhwaj Sahu, a prominent Sahu leader who remained relatively unnoticed, the Congress struggled to maintain a strong connection with OBC voters. Even when discussions about OBC representation are picking up across the country, Bhupesh Baghel as a representative of this section could not convince the OBC voters to re-elect his government.

The party that ousted its rivals and confined them to a mere 15 seats following a 15-year reign failed to bolster its organization for effectively communicating its message to households. Internal discord between Deputy CM TS Singhdeo and CM Baghel, arising from alleged disagreements over a seat-sharing formula they had previously agreed upon, weakened the organization. This internal strife resulted in lackluster campaigning during the elections. In a post-poll media interview, Singhdeo highlighted the impact of infighting and stressed its perilous nature, signaling a need for resolution. Another evident discord, originating from the unstable relationship between former Congress party president Mohan Markam and CM Bhupesh Baghel, adversely affected the overall morale of the cadre, who already felt neglected.

Leading up to the 2023 Assembly elections in the Bastar region of Chhattisgarh, the issue of religious conversion has become a source of contention, particularly between animist tribal communities and recent Christian converts. This tension was a cause of concerns about potential electoral consequences for the ruling party in constituencies such as Antahgarh, Keshakal, Kondagaon, and Chitrakoot. In Bastar, there has been a notable tension and incidents such as denial of burial permissions to certain communities and forced displacement from villages were reported. Reports indicate that the conflict escalated after a directive in July 2022 to monitor the missionaries’ activities and new converts, resulting in violent incidents in Narayanpur in January 2023. Displaced families from one community sought refuge in Narayanpur, underscoring the intricate dynamics at play. Two days later, on January 2, 2023, the opposing groups organized a protest rally in the district headquarters of Narayanpur. Thousands of tribes from Narayanpur, Kondagaon, Antagarh, and Keshkal assembly constituencies were reported to have participated in the rally.

After 15 years in power, the BJP in Chhattisgarh faced internal divisions. The central leadership intervened to restore unity and strategically chose to campaign under the Modi banner. The decision not to project a chief ministerial face proved effective, as the party successfully conveyed to the electorate that “Development equals Modi equals BJP.” This approach also addressed concerns related to potential negative votes due to Raman Singh’s three terms. The BJP initiated its campaign early, announcing its first list in August, three months before the election. The party then mobilized its top leadership, with PM Modi taking center stage as the star campaigner.

In Chhattisgarh, the BJP secured 72.3 lakh votes, while the Congress garnered 66 lakhs. Of the BJP’s total votes, 8 lakhs were attributed to the Modi factor, accounting for 11 percent. The BJP outpaced the Congress by 6.3 lakh votes, underscoring the substantial impact of PM Modi in this victory. The entire lead can be attributed to the Modi factor on the ground, suggesting that without PM Modi, the BJP might have faced a narrow defeat by 1.6 lakh votes in this closely contested battle with the Congress. Modi emerged as the decisive factor in Chhattisgarh.

In the aftermath of the 2023 Assembly elections, Chhattisgarh emerged as a political battleground marked by unexpected outcomes and significant shifts. Bhupesh Baghel’s unforeseen step down highlighted the surprising turn of events, as most predictions favored a comfortable Congress majority. However, the BJP’s silent campaign, strategically avoiding the declaration of a CM candidate, proved successful. The Modi factor played a pivotal role, with 11% of BJP’s votes attributed to it, securing a decisive victory by 6.3 lakh votes. The Congress faced challenges ranging from corruption allegations to OBC appeasement failures, contributing to its defeat and the BJP’s silent ascent to power.

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