Lok Sabha Elections: Phase IV [Voter Turnout Review]

May 13, 2024, marked the 4th phase of the 2024 General Elections. It spanned across 10 States and Union Territories (UTs), with 96 Lok Sabha seats in contention. A total of 1,717 candidates were in the fray in this phase. A total percentage of 69.16% (Updated) turnout was recorded at the end of this phase, which was the highest among the four phases.¹ The aggregate turnout in the 95 constituencies (excluding Srinagar) that voted in the fourth phase was 69.5%, the same as in 2019.

Polling was held for all 17 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana and 25 seats in Andhra Pradesh. In addition, 13 in Uttar Pradesh, five in Bihar, four in Jharkhand, eight in Madhya Pradesh, 11 in Maharashtra, four in Odisha, eight in West Bengal, and one in Jammu and Kashmir saw their future sealed in the EVMs.

Some of the significant constituencies with notable candidates in the running were Kannauj for the Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh, Begusarai in Bihar for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Krishnanagar in West Bengal for the All-India Trinamool Congress (TMC), Hyderabad in Telangana for the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), as well as Berhampore in Odisha and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh for the Indian National Congress (INC).

Voter Turnout Statistics

*Following are the voter turnout statistics shared by ECI in its press release on May 13 at 11.45 PM²

Region-wise Analysis:

North:

Jammu and Kashmir had the sole seat up for voting, followed by Srinagar. Although polling data in Srinagar Lok Sabha constituency cannot be compared given the delimitation exercise carried out, the voting percentage of 2024 at 38.49 is the highest in 30 years.³ It is a large jump from 15.6% in 2019. It is considered particularly significant as these are the first elections since the abrogation of Article 370.

Uttar Pradesh witnessed an overall turnout of 58.22% in this phase. In 2019, this was 60.5%. Here all the seats witnessed a steep drop in the voting percentage, except Kanpur, which saw a distinct rise in voter turnout, where the rate recorded in 2024 was 53.05% against the mark of 43.70 in 2019. Considering the winning margin on this seat was 18%, this rise can lead to an interesting contest. Other constituencies, however, saw a drop in earlier elections. Kannauj, the seat that may attract attention, had 61.08% voting this time around compared to 62.90% in 2019.

The fourth phase has managed to reduce the deficit that we saw in earlier phases between the previous terms of voting and the current. Bihar has seen a rise in the voting percentage than the previous phases. In this phase, Bihar state had five constituencies in the fray. The fourth phase saw 58.21% voting. Which is almost on par with 59.08% of phase three. Begusarai, an important contest for the ruling party, witnessed a 58.7% voter turnout, which is 7 points drop from 64.10% in 2019.

East

West Bengal and Odisha had an overall updated turnout of 80.22% and 75.68%, respectively. The highest voting percentage of this phase was recorded in West Bengal, where opposite-party workers clashed in various parts of Birbhum and Bardhaman-Durgapur seats. Krishnanagar seat, an important seat for TMC, witnessed a voter turnout of 80.65% against that of 77.4% back in 2019. The winning margin for this seat in 2019 was just 4%. The increased vote percentage might make clocks tick in onlookers’ minds. The seat of Baharampur witnessed a 77.54% voter turnout. In 2019, it was 75.2%, with a winning margin of just 6%. A prominent INC candidate has traditionally been a winner from the seat, will the tables turn this time? Only time can tell.

Four constituencies in Odisha were polled in this phase. Overall turnout for the state in 2019 was 76.1%, which is only marginally higher than the current one which stands at 75.68%. ⁴

Central

Madhya Pradesh had eight constituencies up for polling. The overall state turnout was 72.05 percent. In 2019, overall turnout was 72%. In all the constituencies, except Ratlam, the winning margin has been in double digits. In Ratlam, 2019 saw a winning margin of just 6.4% with a voter turnout of 79.7%. Since this time around, voting has come down significantly to 72.945, so we might see some tight contests.

Jharkhand, with its four constituencies in the fray, clocked a 66.01% voter turnout. Overall voter turnout in the state stood at 69.1%.

West

Maharashtra witnessed eleven constituencies in phase four for voting. The average voting percentage across these constituencies was 62.21%, against 64.1% overall in 2019. The constituencies to be paid attention to are Sambhaji Nagar (Aurangabad), Shirur, and Nandurbar. Voting turnout at these places was 63.03 percent, 54.16 percent, and 70.68 percent, respectively. These seats were won with narrow margins, especially in Sambhaji Nagar, where the winning margin was just 0.4%. In 2019, these seats had voter turnout of 68, 63, and 72 percent, respectively. Such a steep drop in voting can lead to close fights among the candidates.

South

The fourth phase covered all the constituencies in both Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

In Andhra Pradesh, voting turnout stood at 80.66%, against 90.2% in 2019. In 2019, this was the most closely fought state of all with thin winning margins. The drop witnessed this time around can turn elections in any direction. In constituencies like Guntur, Visakhapatnam, Srikakulam, and Vijayawada, where winning margins were less than 1%; a change in voter percentage can bring massive uncertainty.⁵

Telangana, too, saw a drop in voting percentage. In 2019, voter turnout was 66.4%. In 2024, however, it will be 65.67%. Not a significant drop like some other states; nevertheless, it might prove important. Out of the 17 seats in Telangana, 16 registered higher turnouts than the previous edition. With another flurry of close calls and the decline of the BRS; the Telangana election is considered a significant battleground for all parties involved. Among the important seats, perhaps Hyderabad will see a good fight. It had a voter turnout of 45.8% in 2019. In 2024, it will be at 48.48%. a small rise of 3%, but with the shifting dynamics of local voting patterns, will it lead to surprises?

Pushing for better numbers

In absolute terms, of the 674 million people who could have cast their ballot in the first four phases, a total of 451 million have exercised their franchise so far, ECI said.

“The Commission strongly believes that partnership and collaboration are essential pillars of a voter awareness program. It’s heartening to see that, on the Commission’s request, different institutions, influencers, and celebrities with significant reach are working enthusiastically on a pro-bono basis,” Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar said.

“A high voter turnout would be a message from Indian voters to the world about the strength of Indian democracy.”

The poll panel also listed the outreach efforts undertaken by various private and public bodies to enhance voter participation in the elections. A voting day alert was sent to all Facebook users pan-India to inform and make the voters aware of the general elections and to nudge them to participate. WhatsApp personalized messages have begun on polling day. Many of the private as well as government business entities are urging their customers to cast their votes.

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