Haryana’s Electoral Shake-Up: BJP Surprises Congress and Analysts Alike

On 8th of October 2024 the results of the Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir Assembly Elections were out with a big surprise in the trends in the Haryana Assembly Results. In the early trends we saw a clear majority for the congress leading on 60 plus seats. These were exactly the figures which most of the Exit polls predicted from the past few days.

But as the counting rounds progressed there was a 180 degree shift in the trends. In the later trends BJP was found leading on 49 plus seats and comfortably forming the government with a clear majority in the state of Haryana. While the congress was leading on 35 plus seats falling short of majority. By the evening all the results were out and BJP won 48 seats, forming the government in Haryana with a clear majority. The congress won 37 seats. 2 INLD candidates and 3 independents also won the election. A day later all the three independents declared their support to BJP.

The results were surprising not only for the political parties but also for the political analysts who predicted that due to the 10 years of anti-incumbency, the Congress will be retaining the state this time with a clear majority.

Schedule and Major Statistics: The elections for the 90 seats in Haryana were announced on 16th of August 2024. Voting took place on 5th of October and results were announced on 8th of October. The voting, which commenced at 7 am and continued until 6 pm, involved 1,031 candidates across 90 constituencies, with 20,632 polling booths set across the state. Approximately 20.35 million voters, including over 1.07 million males, nearly 960,000 females, and 467 third-gender voters, were eligible to cast their votes. To ensure a smooth voting process, around 29,462 police personnel, 21,196 home guards, and 10,403 Special Police Officers were deployed across the state. The total turnout was 67.90%. Other alliances include the INLD-BSP alliance which contested on 51+ and 35+ seats respectively.

Key Players and Alliances: Congress and BJP were the main Political parties in the election. BJP contested on 89 of the 90 seats and extended support to HLP candidate Gopal Goyal Kanda in Sirsa assembly constituency. Congress failed to forge an alliance with AAP and finally gave candidates on 89 seats. Congress gave one seat to their ally CPIM on Bhiwani Seat. As a result AAP gave 88 seats. In the previous elections the JJP gained 10 seats and formed a government with BJP post elections. The JJP-ASP alliance is contesting all seats, with JJP fielding candidates in 70 constituencies and ASP in 20.

Political Arithmetic: There are three main influential Leaders in Congress namely Bhupinder Singh Hooda(Jat Leader), Kumari Selja (Dalit Leader) and Randeep Surjewala. The Congress under Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s leadership was seen to aggressively play up the Jat factor in this Election. THe BJP on the other hand has a good hold on the Non-Jat OBC voters. They also enjoyed the support of the Brahmins, Punjabi Khatris, Yadavs and Non-Jatav Dalits. There are 25%+ Jat population and 40%+ OBC Population in Haryana. The INLD and JJP both being JAT political parties allied with BSP and ASP to attract JAT+Dalit voters.

Key Campaign Issues: Congress rode the campaign on the strong wave of Anti-incumbency against the 10 years of BJP government in Haryana. The party continued to rely on items of two term CM and Congress veteran leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda. It also released an Election Manifesto with 7 promises for various sections of the society including women, youth, farmers, etc. it promised a plot of 100 guz plot and a two room house worth 3.5 lacs for the poor. 300 units of free electricity. The slogans like “Jai Jawan, Jai Kisan, Jai Pahelwan” stirred the emotions during the campaign.

BJP smelled the Anti-incumbency a year ago and replaced the former CM Manohar Lal Khattar with incumbent CM Nayab Singh Saini few months before the Lok Sabha elections. Bjp fielded 60 new candidates this time to counter Anti-incumbency in the state. BJP focused more on the local leadership than the National or PM Narendra Modi. Even the rallies of the PM were reduced from 8+ to some 4 odd in the state elections. BJP promised free gas to the women, 50% representation to the women in local body elections.

Election Results: BJP won the state elections with 48 seats, Congress 37, 2 seats went to INLD and 3 independents also won the election.

The difference between the vote share of BJP and Congress is 0.85% which is less than 1%. But the difference in their seat share is around 11 seats.

Post Election Analysis:

Region Wise Results: Of the 6 regions BJP gained leads in Karnal, Gurugram and Faridabad. Congress led in Ambala and Hisar. In Rohtak it was a tie. In Ambala Region we can see that the BJP’s Vote share is greater than Congress but seats won by congress is much greater than that of BJP. This is because in Ambala congress won 5 seats with margins less than 10000 while BJP won 4 seats with more than 10000 votes.

**Image **Courtesy**: India Today Website**

Urban Voters saved the BJP: In Haryana there are 25 Urban Seats and 65 rural seats. In the rural 65 seats both Congress and BJP won 31 seats each. 2 went to INLD and 1 to the independent. While in the 25 Urban seats BJP won 17 seats and Congress won 6 seats. 2 seats went to the independents. This clearly shows that the Urban voters stood strongly behind the BJP.

BJP bags higher vote share in Majority seats: BJP got more than 40% vote share in 58/90 seats while Congress got 44/90 seats.

Congress lost 4 seats due to AAP: In Constituencies like Assandh, Uchana Kalan, Dabwali and Rania, the votes gained by the AAP candidate was more than the losing margin of the Congress candidate. A pre-poll alliance could have given a greater message in favor of the INDIA Alliance resulting in consolidation of larger anti-BJP votes across the state behind Congress.

Factors they helped BJP:

Larger polarization of Non-Jat OBC votes.
Replacing Manohar Lal Khattar with OBC face CM Nayab Singh Saini.
60 fresh faces in this election to curb the anti-incumbency.
Deconsolidation of the Dalit and Jat voters due to multiple alliances and parties.
Strong focus on local leadership/issues than national issues.

What could have gone wrong with the INC:

Over Polarization of one caste, which resulted into counter polarization in favor of BJP.
Division of votes into their core Jat and Dalit voters, due to BSP-INLD alliance and JJP-ASP alliances.
Inability to forge a larger alliance with parties like AAP, SP and INLD which could have driven the election the either way.
Delayed campaign of a strong dalit Leader in Haryana for Congress.

Major Wins and Defeats:

Haryana Congress president Udai Bhan has been defeated in the Hodal Assembly constituency by a margin of more than 2,500 votes, adding to the disappointment of the main Opposition party, which had anticipated a comfortable victory in the election.
Dushyant Singh Chautala, the founder of the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and great-grandson of former deputy prime minister Devi Lal, faced a setback as he trailed in the Uchana Kalan seat.
Meanwhile, Bhupinder Hooda, the former Congress chief minister and a key political figure in Haryana, secured a significant victory in his stronghold of Garhi Sampla-Kiloi, winning by an impressive margin of 71,465 votes.
Vinesh Phogat, who recently entered politics to contest her first election from Haryana’s Julana seat, also emerged victorious.
Former BJP leaders Savitri Jindal and Devender Kadyan, who left the party weeks before the assembly elections to run as Independents, made a notable impact on the electorate. Savitri Jindal, India’s richest woman, won her seat in Hisar, while Devender Kadyan claimed victory in Ganaur.

Assembly Elections of Haryana is not only a lesson for the Politicians/Political Parties but also for the Political Analysts who failed to sense the people’s pulse of Haryana.

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